Crude oil

Implied, realized and trend give no strong one-way read in this asset right now. OVX is at the 42nd percentile of its past year.

Close of Wednesday 14 OctoberLoadingMixed · normal
OVX48.62−0.15 today
Downside risk for Crude Oil9of 100
CalmHigh

5.7% of past weeks in this state had a drop of 1.5 times the usual weekly range or more. State: its implied vol mid-range.

Implied, OVX48.6242nd percentile
Realized, 30 days38.50what USO actually moved
PremiumImplied minus realizedPositive means options price more movement than USO is delivering, so sellers are paid. Negative means protection is cheap relative to actual movement.+10.1261st percentile

Implied against realized volatility, with the price

OVX is the oil VIX: implied volatility on USO, the crude oil ETF.
Implied, OVXRealized, 30 daysUSO price, right scale
48.638.5154
USO153.56+0.31% today
TrendAboveits 50-day average

Tested signals for crude oil

Only what passed this market's own backtest (2007–2026) is published, so the list is short on purpose.

Nothing is triggered today. 2 tested signals are on standby.

The premium (implied minus realized) is shown as context. Its timing is untested for this market, and in the S&P 500 study its level was not a timing signal. Historical frequencies, not investment advice.