The volatility family in one place — term structures, cross-asset stress, per-asset workspaces, and a playbook where every signal is backtested. Including the ones that failed.
VIX Spot16.15−0.44 (−2.65%)
S&P 500 · Downside-Risk Index
0 · tested calm100 · max measured risk
NORMAL · P(−2% week) 11% · n=865
state: no flag (not all-calm)
walk-forward validated (2000–2026): predicted odds matched realized within ~1.5pp. Drawdown odds, not a sell signal — mean forward return stayed positive in every state.
VIX · Path Index
0 · VIX likely lower100 · VIX likely higher
BALANCED · P(VIX up next wk) 50.2% · n=618
state: steep contango
vol direction (unlike price direction) tested with real signal — this is the measured frequency
Prefer the MILD contango zone (0.92–1.00) — the tested payer
Don't scale up because contango steepened — the steepest zone netted ≈ 0 after costs
DO NOT position for a crash off high SKEW — 36 years: no predictive power
No LONG/SHORT call on any underlying — in 36 years of testing, no state predicted direction. Anyone selling you one off these indicators is selling noise. The tested edge is in RISK and STRUCTURE, above.
Cross-Asset Vol & StressWhat this isEach gauge is one asset class's implied "fear" — its volatility (or, for credit, the high-yield spread).How to readRead the percentile, not the raw level — the indices are on different scales. The bar shows where today sits in the past year: green / low = unusually calm, red / high = stressed.What to look forThe breadth count above is the tested read: ≥3 tiles stretched ran 2.7–3× violent-week odds; 0 stretched 0.25× (see Tested Playbook). Equity = VIX/VXN/RVX · Rates = MOVE · Credit = HY OAS · Commods = OVX/GVZ · plus VVIX (vol-of-vol) & SKEW. ⚠ Tested: SKEW prices tail insurance but does not predict crashes; VVIX at a 1-yr high IS the strongest tested alarm. (EVZ was discontinued by CBOE in Mar-2025 and removed.)The two chipsRISK = the underlying's tested downside-risk index (only where a backtested model exists: S&P, rates, oil, gold). PATH = the vol index's own tested mean-reversion odds — 0 likely lower next week, 100 likely higher (hover a chip for the measured % and sample). DSPX/COR3M/HY-OAS are too young or data-capped for a model — no chip, on purpose.ChartsClick a tile for its 1-year history with 1D/1W/1M/3M look-backs. (Only VIX has a tradable futures curve, so the curve-overlay view exists only there — these are cash-index histories.)