Complacent · fragileGVZ — the gold VIX, quoted on GLD options — against gold's realized vol.
Gold · Downside-Risk Index
0 · tested calm100 · max measured risk
LOW · P(GLD −1.5σ week) 6.2% · n=454
state: own IV mid-range
odds of a >1.5σ down week in this asset — turbulence odds, not a direction call
Tested Signals · GoldWhat this isThis asset's OWN evidence — backtested on its own history (2005–2026), era-split, and independently re-verified, same protocol as the VIX playbook.Why only 2 signalsBecause only 2 survived this asset's own backtest. We publish what passed — not a longer list of things that didn't. More join if they pass future studies.The honest scopeWhat's proven here is a RISK map (when this asset's violent weeks cluster). No directional timing signal survived testing in any asset — sizing and timing stay with you.
2 signals passed this asset's backtest · 2005–2026
No signal is triggered right now — 2 tested signals are standing by.
Premium (IV − RV) level and trend are shown below as context — per-asset premium timing is untested here, and in the S&P study the premium's level was NOT a timing signal. Historical odds, not advice.
Implied vs Realized · GLD
Options pay little over what the asset actually moves — a thin cushion for vol sellers.
Implied vol · GVZ26.0058th %ile · GVZ · GLD IV−1.12 on the day
Realized vol · RV3030.9921-day annualized · GLDwhat the instrument actually moved
Vol premium · IV − RV−4.9919th %ilepositive = options richer than movement
Underlying · GLD378.13+2.03% on the daytrend down vs 50-day avg