Gold

Implied, realized and trend give no strong one-way read in this asset right now. GVZ is at the 13th percentile of its past year.

Close of Wednesday 14 OctoberLoadingMixed · normal
GVZ22.78+0.69 today
Downside risk for Gold1of 100
CalmHigh

4.1% of past weeks in this state had a drop of 1.5 times the usual weekly range or more. State: its implied vol in the bottom quarter of its year.

Implied, GVZ22.7813th percentile
Realized, 30 days20.93what GLD actually moved
PremiumImplied minus realizedPositive means options price more movement than GLD is delivering, so sellers are paid. Negative means protection is cheap relative to actual movement.+1.8559th percentile

Implied against realized volatility, with the price

GVZ is the gold VIX: implied volatility on GLD, the gold ETF.
Implied, GVZRealized, 30 daysGLD price, right scale
22.820.9376
GLD375.99−1.49% today
TrendBelowits 50-day average

Tested signals for gold

Only what passed this market's own backtest (2005–2026) is published, so the list is short on purpose.

Risk signal. Triggers when GVZ is at or below the 25th percentile of its past year.

The premium (implied minus realized) is shown as context. Its timing is untested for this market, and in the S&P 500 study its level was not a timing signal. Historical frequencies, not investment advice.